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On Friday oil closed at $73 a barrel, the highest since July. This was about $10 above what supply-demand fundamentals would justify, says Tom Reed of Argus Media, a price-reporting agency. At the start of the year many analysts expected an oil “superglut”, caused by rising supply in the Gulf and elsewhere amid tepid demand, to push down prices towards $55 a barrel. In early February the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, predicted a supply surplus of 3.7m barrels per day (b/d) on average for 2026.
Regional conflict and, in particular, a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—which carries around 15m barrels per day (b/d), roughly a third of global seaborne flows—could push prices towards $100.
Taking aim at oilfields would be reckless. An Iranian attack on Gulf oil would invite retaliatory strikes from neighbours, which first called for de-escalation.
Hormuz has never been closed to maritime traffic, even during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Choking it off would antagonise China, which buys nearly all of Iran’s oil and receives 37% of its seaborne crude imports through the Strait.
On February 28th the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s praetorian guard, broadcast warnings that shipping through the strait was no longer permitted.
Alternative routes are of limited use. Saudi Arabia can redirect barrels via its East-West pipeline; the UAE has a smaller conduit bypassing the strait. Even at full capacity, however, some 8m-10m b/d would remain exposed, estimates Jorge León of Rystad Energy, another consultancy.
Mr Trump could speed things along by tapping America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 415m barrels. That is what Joe Biden, his predecessor, did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. But back then the reserve held nearly 570m barrels. At its maximum draw rate of 4.4m b/d it now would last three months.