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美国运通
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According to Nilson, an industry bible, in 1974 the amount of money for purchases channelled through American Express was equivalent to 50% of what went through MasterCard and 70% of what went through Visa. By 2016, those ratios had shrunk to 30% and 14%.
Competitive pressure looms on all sides. MasterCard’s market capitalisation is twice that of American Express; Visa’s, three times as big. PayPal, spun off from eBay in 2015 and run by a former American Express executive, has a tiny fraction of Amex’s revenues and profits but on the eve of the earnings announcement passed it in market value (see chart). Its sales and profits have grown much faster, and it was born online.
Competition abroad is just as keen. American Express entered Asia early and once had an enviable position there, but its presence has faded. In 2007 it sold (to Standard Chartered) a private bank created almost a century ago that had languished from inattention. Japan’s JCB has issued almost as many cards (but still accounts for far less in transactions). China’s UnionPay boasts the world’s biggest transaction volume, eight times that of American Express, and 55% of cards issued globally.
In this noisy hothouse, Mr Chenault deserves respect for keeping American Express healthy. It has supported its market share through deals with banks and other financial institutions that can now issue American Express cards (and generate fees by transacting through Amex’s systems). In the past decade the number of businesses accepting its cards has doubled. But these victories have come at a cost. Twenty-five years ago American Express collected a 3.2% fee on every transaction, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment research firm. Now, it makes less than 1.8%. Competitive pressure will squeeze this further.
In the past, merchants were willing to pay for American Express transactions because its cardholders were well-off and willing to spend. But now large banks are going after these customers. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, both with card businesses headed by ex-Amexers, have issued cards that provide benefits broadly regarded as better than those from American Express. Soon Bank of America will follow. Banks have also taken aim at lucrative co-branding deals carrying exclusive rewards for customers. In 2015 American Express lost one such deal with Costco, a large retailer that accounted for 10% of its transaction volume, to Citigroup. Another, with JetBlue, an airline, went to Barclays.
To rely less on revenue from transaction fees, American Express has become more banklike, lending more. Net interest income made up 18% of revenues in 2012 and should bring in 28% in 2018, predicts Nomura/Instinet, a brokerage. That has looked good lately, because funds have been cheap and credit quality high, but the environment may be changing. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, among others, began expanding their consumer-loan portfolios in 2015. Now quality may be worsening. In the two most recent quarters, analysts were surprised by the size of American Express’s provisions for credit losses. Other banks also increased provisions.