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GE Aerospace ​

https://www.geaerospace.com/

2024年4月2日，GE完成拆分，分為三家獨立的上市公司：

  • GE Aerospace：專注於航空航天業務，設計和製造商用與軍用飛機引擎、整合引擎零件，以及電力和機械飛機系統。
  • GE Vernova：專注於能源業務，涵蓋可再生能源和電力部門，產品與技術利用石油、天然氣、化石燃料、柴油和核能等資源來生產電力。
  • GE HealthCare：專注於醫療健康業務，提供智能設備、數據分析、軟體應用和服務，涵蓋疾病診斷、治療與監護的全流程。

商业发动机和服务（Commercial Engines & Services, CES）

Articles ​

2025年初航空公司的国内休闲需求下降，至少部分是由关税相关的不确定性所致。尽管需求已趋于稳定并呈现改善迹象，但通胀威胁的加大会令此类改善停滞，尤其是在美国和欧洲。这两个地区合计占全球航空业经营利润总额的四分之三左右

美国航空公司经营利润激增反映了占该地区业务90%的三家航空公司业绩改善。传统航空公司达美航空(Baa2/稳定)，联合航空控股(Ba2/正面)和美国航空集团(B1/稳定)的经营利润合计将增长12%。这三家公司都受益于收入来源的多元化，其中包括对高端票价的持续强劲需求、稳固的国际合作伙伴关系，以及来自常旅客忠诚度计划收入的有力贡献。强劲的高端舱需求将继续使这些航空公司在争夺对价格更为敏感的经济舱旅客时保持竞争力。但传统航空公司经营利润的增长以牺牲廉价航空公司(LCC)的利益为代价，其中包括捷蓝航空(Caa1/稳定)和Spirit Airlines(Caa3/负面)。在充满挑战的运营环境下，两家廉价航空公司2026年仍将处于亏损状态，而且增收策略要到2026年以后才能带来实质性收益。收入增长难以跟上成本上涨的速度，尤其是劳动力成本的上升速度，将抑制廉价航空公司的盈利能力。

在强劲需求，尤其是高端市场需求的推动下，欧洲航空公司将恢复实现经营利润。国际统一航空集团(Baa3/正面)、德国汉莎航空(Baa3/稳定)和法航荷航集团均预计将增加约3%-5%运能，这将有利于其收入增长，但机场空中交通管制问题和地区性罢工仍构成持续风险。

尽管存在宏观经济风险，但拉美强劲的航空旅行需求将扭转经营利润下滑趋势。2025年上半年，**南美航空集团(Ba2/稳定)的客公里收入较上年同期增长10%，这主要得益于巴西的需求。巴西运力增长空间有限，廉价航空公司Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes(B3/ 稳定)于2025年6月摆脱破产困境，而其同业廉价航空公司Azul则在一个月前申请破产保护。 墨西哥和哥伦比亚的国内需求有所转弱， 但Grupo Aeromexico(Ba3/稳定)的国际客运量抵消了国内市场的疲软，而Avianca Group International(B2/正面)**的成本控制及其在哥伦比亚以外地区的航线扩张将助其实现盈利。

引领**印度国内航空市场并在国际扩张的InterGlobe Aviation (Baa3/稳定)**在必要时可将更高的燃料成本转嫁到票价中，不过汇率波动带来一定风险。2026年澳大利亚国内和国际需求将保持强劲，**澳洲航空(Baa2/稳定)**将从中受益。 新西兰航空(Baa1/稳定)仍将有多架飞机停飞，原因是普惠PW1100和Trent 1000发动机的维护持续存在问题。 尽管其国内需求依然低迷，但利率从2024年7月的5.5%持续降至目前的3.0%，这可能会开始刺激消费支出。

在加拿大，工资、维护和机场收费等成本的上升将抵消温和的运力增长和稳定的客运收入；劳动力是当地航空公司继燃油之后的第二大运营成本。2025年国内和非美国际航空旅行同比实现增长。在贸易和政治紧张局势下，加美跨境旅行有所下降，2025年5月下降8%，上半年**加航(Ba2/稳定)**该数据同比下降10%。加航在2025年8月达成的初步协议包括空乘人员总薪酬增加38%，这可能会影响整个行业的工资预期。

Earnings Report ​

2026Q1 ​

In 2026, CES continues to expect revenue growth of mid-teens, driven by mid-teens services revenue growth, and equipment revenue growth of mid- to high-teens. Operating profit continues to be expected in the range of $9.6-$9.9 billion.

In 2026, DPT continues to expect revenue growth of mid- to high-single-digit, and operating profit of $1.55-$1.65 billion.

2025Q4 ​

Looking to 2026, we're poised for another year of substantial revenue, EPS and cash growth. Demand remains robust with 2025 orders up 32% and continued backlog growth. This supports our expectation for revenue to be up low double digits, including commercial services up mid-teens.

We expect operating profit of $9.85 billion to $10.25 billion, up $1 billion at the midpoint. This translates to EPS of $7.10 to $7.40, up nearly 15% at the midpoint. And we expect to generate $8 billion to $8.4 billion of free cash flow with conversion remaining well above 100%. This outlook builds on the progress we made in '24 and '25.

We expect to deliver mid-teens revenue growth between '24 and '26 compounded and $10 billion of profit in '26 two years earlier than our outlook has been. We continue to convert this into cash, expecting to generate more than $20 billion of cash between '24 and '26 to reinvest in our future, including in US manufacturing to support both our commercial and defense customers.

GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise, servicing and growing the industry's most extensive installed base of 80,000 engines.

MRO Network (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul)：维护、修理和大修网络。

OE Side (Original Equipment)：原厂设备端

airlines and airframers: 航空公司和飞机制造商

We expect LEAP OE to be profitable in 2026 as per our prior plans

CAD improvement: Cost at Delivery

Baird Global Industrial Conference ​

2025Q3 ​

GE Aerospace Product and Technology Update ​

2025Q2 ​

3 out of 4 Commercial flights powered by our engines.

Company to increase capital returns to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 by 20%, to ~$24 billion; expecting to sustainably return at least 70% of free cash flow via dividend and buybacks beyond 2026.

Our team is using FLIGHT DECK to improve safety, quality, delivery and cost—always in that order—as we strive to provide unrivaled customer service and deliver on our roughly $175 billion backlog.

CES expects low-double-digit revenue growth through 2028, with profit growth from higher services volume offsetting headwinds from GE9X costs and research and development spending.

In 2025, DPT continues to expect to deliver mid-single-digit to high-single-digit revenue growth and $1.1 to $1.3 billion of operating profit.
DPT affirmed mid-single-digit revenue growth through 2028, with profit growth from higher volume, improving mix, and productivity.

Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference ​

GE Aerospace 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting ​

2025Q1 ​

Barclays Industrial Select Conference ​

2024Q4 ​

2024Q3 ​

2024Q2 ​

2024Q1 ​

2023Q4 ​

2023Q3 ​

2023Q2 ​

2023Q1 ​